Sean t rcp twitter. Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. It described it as being 100% in, but in fact, those precincts are partially reporting. There are eight counties still at least …

Sep 1, 2021 · “One problem Biden has is that he doesn't have much "crawl-over-broken-glass-twice-to-vote-for-him" type support. That inoculated Obama and Trump from a total wipeout. He really could completely collapse.”

Sean t rcp twitter. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users

“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/”

“This remains the key chart for how big GOP House gains will be: Biden vote share by the number of districts with that vote share. At R+3 or so nationally, the GOP starts to climb the levy that Democrats built with Biden +10 (or so) districts. 1/”“What an apolitical redraw does is add some responsiveness to maps. In great D years they can draw to parity in PA, and in the map my class drew they might end up 6-9 or 7-8 in Ohio. A solid gerrymander might prevent those outcomes. 6/”

Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked …In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users5 Haz 2018 ... This paper contributes to the literature on the explanation of housing prices and the impact of many but small.Log in. Sign upIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSenior elections analyst for RCP, Sean Trende, likewise said that the claim was “untrue” on Twitter. While The Associated Press and cable news networks have projected Biden as the winner, RCP has not called the 2020 presidential race for either candidate at the time of publication. RCP lists Biden as having 259 electoral votes and …Sep 12, 2021 · “I've been mulling over some of the defenses of Australia's anti-COVID regime from liberal friends, and the ACLU's defense of vaccine mandates. I can't decide if this is a one-off, or some greater shift in American liberalism. 1/” “Look, it sounds like the debate is an utter disaster for him. But few will watch it, and it's a hard thing to go on the attack about without inspiring a backlash. This hurts Fetterman, but I don't think things have shifted all that dramatically.”

In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@kkondik Yeah, the shift in the non-urban, non -Deep South over the past 20 years is probably the most consequential — and least well understood — shifts of our lifetime.”1 Mar 2018 ... Christian Greico breaks down his win in the Toyota Series Northern Division event on the Potomac River. Additionally, he goes in-depth on ...

“@_Chris_Golding_ From what I understand this happened at the end of the fourth quarter, and it took a while to figure out exactly what was going on. All coaches (who are just parents) were horrified, but this is something there needs to be clear guidance on at a …

Nov 3, 2021 · Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende · Nov 3, 2021 Replying to @SeanTrende suggesting that Trump's '20 gains among Hispanic are potentially sticking. Swings from 2020 are in working class townships, suggesting continued movement for voters there. If there's a silver lining for Ds, its that the wealthier townships in the northwest didn't move as much.

[Sean T at RCP, RT'ed by Nate Cohn] Reminder: don't be a crosstab truther. You're dealing with small sample sizes, sometimes subjected to multidimensional weighting. They're mostly useful for patterns that appear across multiple polls, not for disputing the topline's accuracy. twitter“What an apolitical redraw does is add some responsiveness to maps. In great D years they can draw to parity in PA, and in the map my class drew they might end up 6-9 or 7-8 in Ohio. A solid gerrymander might prevent those outcomes. 6/”Jun 6, 2021 · “Don't get me wrong, your best bet with pols is often to be cynical. But the options here seem to be some combination of Manchin is (a) sincere-ish, (b) thinks he's going to win re-election in 2024, (c) feels a duty not to represent his R+23 state as if it were Vermont.” Log in. Sign upAug 31, 2020 · Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "Oh. My. God.… " Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende Follow @SeanTrende Oh. My. God. 7:29 AM - 31 Aug 2020 1,201 Retweets 10,113 Likes 848 replies 1,201 retweets 10,113 likes Teddy Fusaro @teddyfuse 31 Aug 2020 Replying to @SeanTrende this can't be real! 1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes 1 8 Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende 31 Aug 2020

At 266 electoral votes, Donald Trump stood just one state short of winning the presidency. And with the final RCP Poll Averages in a handful of battleground states showing Trump trailing by just 0 ...“OK, let's settle this: Worst Star Wars main storyline movie. I'll give my take at the end, but I do think a case can be made for any of these.”1 Tem 2023 ... Future Healthc J: Vol. 10, Issue 2 (July 2023) · EDITORIAL · MENTAL HEALTH SPECIAL · ORIGINAL RESEARCH · REVIEW · CASE STUDY · SHORT QI REPORT.Jun 1, 2022 · “Even just having Snoke hint that there's a larger force behind him, and maybe having Ren meet Palpatine at the end of Episode VIII as a cliffhanger and then giving the explanation of how in IX would fix quite a bit. And that then brings us to VIII. 9/” Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende The losses this term were really aggressive asks on the VRA and ISL. and even there Kav and Roberts left a trail of crumbs on how to get to the desired outcome next time.“@shundle So if what we're seeing is more about Ds being hyperenthusiastic, rather than people changing minds, we might expect to see something like what I've sketched out.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Alright, Florida (mostly), Georgia, IN-01, Western KY, SC, VT and VA are on deck. Then at 8, all hell breaks loose.”“Even just having Snoke hint that there's a larger force behind him, and maybe having Ren meet Palpatine at the end of Episode VIII as a cliffhanger and then giving the explanation of how in IX would fix quite a bit. And that then brings us to VIII. 9/”Jun 1, 2022 · “OK, let's settle this: Worst Star Wars main storyline movie. I'll give my take at the end, but I do think a case can be made for any of these.” Sean T at RCP. Follow @SeanTrende. Nov 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read Bookmark . Save as PDF . My Authors My basic view of this election hasn't changed over the cycle; it's the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, not choices. 1/“@zackbeauchamp The financial collapse of 2008, and then the election turning out pretty much exactly what we would expect given Q2 data.”Oct 19, 2022 · “I think a lot of problems with Rhaenys Targaryen not incinerating the Greens comes from the weird gender politics the show has embraced. One of the interesting thing about GOT was it wasn't afraid to make the female characters as crazy and murderous as the men. 1/” “I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/”“@Izengabe_ @fawfulfan More to the point, the typical way we do a quick-and-dirty assessment of a state's political orientation is PVI, and Kentucky is a point redder than Vermont is blue. If one wants to make a nuanced critique of CPVI here that's fine, but at that point you've lost the plot.”16 May 2023 ... Letters have been granted on the. Estate of each of the following decedents to the representatives named, who request all persons.“But Kaine and Warner are pretty young, so his political career is already done. His private sector prospects are . . . limited right now. This probably isn't an impeachable offense. 100% apart from doing the right thing, why do we think he leaves? 2/2”

RT @davidshor: To be more pointed - Catalist data shows that non-college voters of color have trended *enormously* toward the GOP since 2012, by similar magnitudes as non-college whites (particularly on a logit scale!).“Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/”“@JenRodbowers @BenjySarlin The R won by 10 points in a district that went for Romney by 2 and Clinton by 7. I don't want to overstate the importance but I don't think you can just dismiss it as "the district leaned R anyway" either.”The silver lining for Ds is this: Ciattarelli came close to Christie's 2013 showing in Passaic, (when Christie won by 22 statewide), but likely loses.“@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.”Jordan's supporters have made some GOP lawmakers more entrenched in their opposition to his bid for the speaker's gavel. "They're harassing our spouses," says Rep. Don Bacon.Mar 3, 2022 · Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersNov 8, 2016 · Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende. ... Still early, but she's running ahead of Obama in 7 of the 8 IN counties reporting. 11:50 PM · Nov 8, 2016 · Twitter Web Client. 225. “Here in the real world Silver gives Demings a 1-in-17 chance of beating Rubio, but sure, why not?”So SC-1 is an interesting case. It's basically divvied up between Beaufort County and then three counties in the Charleston area: Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley, with bits of other two other counties thrown in.Log in. Sign up“OTOH, we could also easily see something like this,without getting too aggressive (234D-201R).”“Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/”08 Sep 2022 18:37:23Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“The Dobbs theory is facially reasonable, but you have to explain DeWine vs Vance, or Kemp vs Walker, or Lombardo vs. Laxalt, or even Lake vs Masters (even if she narrowly loses). You have to explain an R+3-4 popular vote. Especially since govs have more impact on abortion policy.”In today’s fast-paced world, staying up to date with current events is more important than ever. With so much happening around us, it can be challenging to find reliable sources of news and information. That’s where Sean Hannity Live comes ...“Mason has been singing the same song over and over again for the past 20m in his little 8 y/o boy voice and one nice thing about having three is that I recognize that voice (and maybe the singing) will be gone in the blink of an eye. So when he stops, I ask him to sing it again.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ThePlumLineGS @billscher So I'm pretty comfortable saying they'd have gotten something through absent the strictures of reconciliation. And remember, with regular order you don't have to go all-or-nothing. You can do a *ton* through appropriations riders, which give nervous members cover.”

“Anyway, this might be a one-off thing. I hope it's a one off thing, and not another example of liberalism, having become ascendant in American politics, abandoning some of the principles that enabled it to begin its ascent out of fear that something else might replace it. 6/”

“So I don't know. Ideology certainly matters less than the 4th grade civics version, where candidates give speeches and voters decide who they agree with the most on the issues. I just think some of the current crop of Dem candidates are problematic for Democrats in unique ways.”

“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.”“@varadmehta Probably more of the latter. The D is a touch behind Biden's vote share. The independent that got ~3% is a former GOP statewide officeholder turned libertarian turned independent.”“But if things get much worse for Dems and Republicans start to flip Biden 55/56/57 seats (in expectation) the losses can pile up very quickly. Basically around R+5 or so, the levy breaks. 3/3”“@BenjySarlin This is one of the key reasons we have such wide bands on our "tossup" category for now. No one really knows how to model this thing.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @ Protected Tweets @Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende · Nov 3, 2021 Replying to @SeanTrende suggesting that Trump's '20 gains among Hispanic are potentially sticking. Swings from 2020 are in working class townships, suggesting continued movement for voters there. If there's a silver lining for Ds, its that the wealthier townships in the northwest didn't move as much.Jun 1, 2022 · “My take: You can make a case for Phantom Menace largely because, as Machete Order proves, you can pretty much watch the entire series without it and not miss anything. But it isn't a horrible movie, though I'm the weirdo who sort of liked the Palpatine political machinations.” In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users

winning coalitionwow primal fire enchantdonde queda la selva de darienpink ombre acrylic nails Sean t rcp twitter ku on tv today [email protected] & Mobile Support 1-888-750-4085 Domestic Sales 1-800-221-7743 International Sales 1-800-241-2993 Packages 1-800-800-3668 Representatives 1-800-323-3647 Assistance 1-404-209-7499. In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users. what causes problems ANALYSIS. By Sean Trende - RCP Staff. November 17, 2022. AP. As of this writing, most states have counted their 2022 election ballots. California, being California, …“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/” schitts creek thank you gifmambises cubanos Jun 23, 2022 · “The truth is, I think the Biden will have a better chance at re-election than the environment (whatever it is in 2024) will suggest, because Trump will make the election about him rather the environment. Should Trump lose the primary, he'll go nuclear on the GOP nominee.” ways to advocatebill self national championships New Customers Can Take an Extra 30% off. There are a wide variety of options. In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @ Protected Tweets @“I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/”6:46 PM · Aug 28, 2021 · Twitter Web App. 98. Retweets. 354. Quote Tweets. 395. Likes. Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende ...